| 白钊成,张家礼.澜沧江流域云南段土地利用结构及生态风险演化研究[J].林业调查规划,2022,(5):109-115 |
| 澜沧江流域云南段土地利用结构及生态风险演化研究 |
| Land Use Structure and Ecological Risk Evolution in Yunnan Section of Lancang River |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 土地利用 生态风险 灰色GM(1,1)模型 澜沧江云南段区域 ArcGIS |
| 英文关键词: land use ecological risk GM (1, 1) model Yunnan Section of Lancang River ArcGIS |
| 基金项目:云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目（1371388663）. |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于计量地理学理论和ArcGIS技术平台，利用澜沧江云南段区域1990—2020年的土地利用数据，以土地利用动态度、土地生态风险指数等为指标，对土地生态系统进行量化分析，并运用灰色系统理论，分析土地生态风险与土地利用之间的相关性，预测未来15年土地生态风险指数。结果表明，30年间澜沧江流域云南段区域的土地利用动态度和土地生态风险均呈上升趋势，其中，2020年土地利用动态度和土地生态风险指数的变化幅度均表现最为剧烈；澜沧江云南段区域的土地生态风险分布具有区域性，表现为上游、下游为中低生态风险区，中游为较高生态风险区；未来15年澜沧江流域云南段区域的土地生态风险有向更高等级演变的趋势。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the theory of quantitative geography and ArcGIS technology platform, the land use data of Yunnan section of Lancang River from 1990 to 2020 were quantitatively analyzed by land use dynamic degree and land ecological risk index. The correlation between land ecological risk and land use was analyzed by grey system theory, and the land ecological risk index in the next 15 years was predicted. The results showed that the land use dynamic degree and land ecological risk in the Yunnan section of Lancang River had increased in the past 30 years, and the change range in 2020 was the most dramatic; the distribution of land ecological risk in Yunnan section of Lancang River was regional, showing that the upstream and downstream were middle-low ecological risk areas, and the middle reaches were high ecological risk areas; the land ecological risk in Yunnan section of Lancang River had a trend to a higher level in the next 15 years. |
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